The last year of 2020 was one of the most challenging and year full of hardship for M-NAV GOJSC due to the impact caused by the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemics. Although during the summer period we saw a minimal restoration of the situation as a result of air traffic towards the tourist destinations in Greece and Turkey, the second wave of Covid – 19 started in the last quarter, generating new restrictions to be imposed at State level in most European countries which re-imposed new preventive measures with partial closure of borders and introduction of quarantine measures at the entrance to their territory and all this caused additional hit to our revenues . In the year of 2020, M-NAV GOJSC Skopje suffered loss of over 5 million Euros which directly and to a large extent affects the current liquidity of the Company.
Eurocontrol Feedback
Looking at the 2020, traffic loss for North Macedonia was on average 58%, or some 12k flights lower (arrivals and departures only) when compared to the previous 2019 year.
If we consider overflights for the last year, we saw 57.1% drop, while there was -65.3% lower for arrivals and departures when compared to 2019.
The following table presents the situation at ACC level (Area Control Center) and for the main airport in our country.
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Latest Eurocontrol Traffic Scenarios 2021
The first month of 2021 is expected to be approximately -64% down which is close to the EUROCONTROL short-term draft traffic scenario, last published in September 2020. In response to the latest COVID waves and risks associated with new variants, many States across Europe are imposing measures on travel which strongly discourages air travel unless it is for essential reasons. As a result, demand is greatly suppressed and airlines are dramatically reducing their capacity accordingly.
It is expected that the epidemiological situation will have improved in many European States by Q2 of this year and that the most vulnerable citizens across Europe will have been vaccinated (despite delays in the roll-out). In turn, this could lead to the possibility for non-essential air travel to become more accessible, which could facilitate a small improvement during Q2, followed by a larger recovery in the summer period.
Even if the epidemiological situation has improved by Q2, many States may potentially will continue to act with their national travel restrictions which will severely curtail demand and the possibility for air travel to start gradually to recover until the Summer period at the latest.
Taking into consideration all above-mentioned information, in January 2021, Eurocontrol has prepared new short-term traffic scenarios covering the period between now and the month of June, and two scenarios were presented. Also, the graph below presents the forecast for the period between now and the year of 2024 for the Republic of North Macedonia, depending on the dynamics of the vaccination.
In the year of 2021 as well, as it was case of 2020, M-NAV GOJSC Skopje will face a significant air traffic drop compared to the period before the outbreak of the pandemics, thus causing direct financial implications on the Company which are anticipated to be over 55% from 2019.
The Management Board of M-NAV GOJSC Skopje headed by its President extends highest assurances that will proceed to monitor and analyze all information regarding the Covid-19 crisis and how to improve the air traffic situation. We hope that the cooperation between the countries in view of harmonized regulation of measures and restrictions on entry into the countries will continue in positive direction which could be a trigger for aviation industry recovery. The dynamics of the Covid -19 vaccination of the population worldwide plays a vital role for faster air traffic recovery and increased demand for air transport.
M-NAV GOJSC Skopje is committed to gather analysis and statistics which will assists us to be ready to handle such crisis in future.
We remain optimistic that at the beginning of the summer the situation will gradually begin to recover and people`s confidence to use the air transport will return, so we, as air navigation service providers remain committed to achievement of our mission, ensuring safe and efficient air traffic, above all.